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Free 60-second checkThe 2026 ACA Subsidy Cliff Calculator: Find Out If You Are Over the Line
By Dick Tracy · Published August 8, 2026
For 2026 coverage the marketplace subsidy cliff is back: earn even one dollar over 400% of the federal poverty level for your household size and your subsidy is zero. Not smaller. Zero. This free calculator tells you in 60 seconds which side of the line you are on, how close you are, and what to do about it. No email required, no signup, nothing to download. I educate, you decide.
Estimates only, based on 400% of the 2025 federal poverty guidelines for the lower 48 states and DC (Alaska and Hawaii use higher figures). "Income" means modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) for 2026, which is not always the number on your pay stub. This is education, not tax or enrollment advice. Bring me the number and we'll run it together.
The number lines for 2026, household by household
The cliff sits at 400% of the federal poverty level. For 2026 coverage that means roughly $62,600 for a single person, $84,600 for a couple, $106,600 for a household of three, and $128,600 for a family of four, adding about $22,000 for each additional person. What counts is your modified adjusted gross income for 2026, the year you have the coverage, not last year's tax return. A family paying $675 a month with the subsidy can be renewed at $2,100 a month without it. Same plan, same doctors, same deductible. That is over $17,000 a year in new cost for crossing a line by a dollar. The math doesn't math, and nobody at the marketplace is going to call and warn you.
What to do with your result
If you are under the line, make sure the income estimate on your application is accurate, because the IRS reconciles subsidies at tax time and a wrong number lands on you, not the marketplace. If you are close to the line, know your cushion and get a plan B priced before a good year surprises you. And if you are over the line, do not just accept the sticker-price renewal. New York folks: healthy people and families can merge into pre-established ERISA group plans and get group rates, because ERISA is federal law and the state cannot block it. Everywhere else, private coverage priced on you often costs meaningfully less than an unsubsidized marketplace plan. I compare all of it side by side and show you real numbers, so talk to me before you assume anything.
Common questions about the 2026 subsidy cliff
How do I know if I am over the cliff?
Compare your household's modified adjusted gross income for 2026 against 400% of the federal poverty level for your household size: roughly $62,600 for one person, $84,600 for a couple, $106,600 for three, $128,600 for four, plus about $22,000 per additional person. At or under the line, help is still available. Over it, even by a dollar, the subsidy is zero. The calculator above does this for you.
What counts as income?
Modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) for the coverage year: wages, self-employment profit, most investment income, Social Security. The trap: a claimed dependent who earns enough to be required to file a return can add their income to the household number. A kid with a real job can silently push the whole family over.
What happens if I go one dollar over?
You lose the entire subsidy. There is no taper above the line for 2026. A family paying $675 a month with help can be renewed at $2,100 for the same plan without it. And if you underestimated your income to get the subsidy, you can owe money back at tax time.
Can I get my income under the line?
Sometimes. Pre-tax retirement contributions and self-employed deductions both lower MAGI. Business owners and 1099 earners often have real room. Run the actual numbers with your tax professional before counting on it.
What if I am over the cliff and get nothing?
Then the marketplace has no built-in price advantage for you anymore, and there are two doors outside it that are not income-tested. In New York, healthy people and families can merge into pre-established ERISA group plans at group rates, because ERISA is federal law. In most other states, private plans priced on you instead of community-rated can cost meaningfully less than an unsubsidized marketplace plan. Compare them side by side before you renew anything. I educate, you decide.
Bring me your income estimate and your renewal letter and I will show you the real numbers side by side: subsidized, unsubsidized, and private. Free, no hard sell, ever. I educate, you decide.
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