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2027 Rate Watch

Will Health Insurance Premiums Go Up in 2027? What Insurers Asked For, What States Approved, and What To Do Before November 1

Written and reviewed by Dick Tracy, licensed health insurance broker (NPN 20414610) · Published October 7, 2026

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Quick answer Yes. For most people health insurance premiums go up in 2027, and in a growing list of states the increase is already approved: 6.0 percent in New York, 10 percent in Colorado, 11.3 percent in Connecticut, 12 percent in Idaho, 14.6 percent in Maryland, and 15.97 percent in Pennsylvania on the individual market. Nationally, marketplace insurers asked for a median 15 percent increase for 2027 across 276 companies, according to KFF. Employer plan forecasts for 2027 run from 8.2 to 11.1 percent. Answered by Dick Tracy, a licensed health insurance broker in Buffalo, NY. Open enrollment opens November 1, 2026, so the window to do something about your number is short.

I came out of the healthcare side of this business before I ever sold a policy, so there is no gag clause on me. I am licensed in 25 states with 80+ carriers behind me, and I will give you the tips, the tricks, and the traps. The honest version of this question is not just "will premiums go up." It is "how much, in my state, and what can I actually do about it before the window closes." The news stories answer the first half and stop. The second half gets its own section below.

What insurers asked for in 2027

KFF reviewed 2027 rate filings from 276 marketplace insurers across all 50 states and the District of Columbia and found a median proposed increase of 15 percent. That is the second straight year of double digit proposals and the second highest requested change since 2018. The spread was wide: requests ran from minus 1 percent to 54 percent, 63 percent of them landed between 10 and 25 percent, and 51 insurers asked for more than 25 percent.

Insurers told regulators why. Higher prices for health services, general inflation, and labor shortages account for the bulk of it. On top of that, the enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, and insurers expect that to make the pool of people who stay enrolled sicker on average, because healthy people are the ones who drop coverage when the price goes up. That second piece is the one that compounds: fewer healthy enrollees means a higher average claim, which means next year's filing goes up again.

What states have actually approved for 2027

Proposed rates are a request. The number that hits your renewal letter is the one the state signs off on, and through September and early October the approvals have been landing one state at a time. Here is where the public record stood on October 7, 2026, for the states that have published final 2027 averages. If a state is missing from this table, it is because it had not published an approved average yet, and I would rather leave a row out than guess at it.

Every one of those came in under the request. New York insurers asked for 20.6 percent on individual plans and 23.7 percent on small group and were approved at 6.0 and 8.0, which the state put at roughly $1.6 billion kept in the pockets of about 860,000 New Yorkers. Connecticut cut 16.2 percent down to 11.3 percent. Pennsylvania trimmed 17.14 percent to 15.97 percent and said it denied $94.7 million in increases it judged unjustified. Maryland brought small group from 13.1 percent to 10.2 percent. Rate review is not theater, but it is also not a rescue: the direction is still up everywhere.

Two cautions on that table. First, California is not in it on purpose. Covered California announced a statewide average of 9.9 percent on July 21, 2026, but it was published as preliminary and subject to final state review, so it does not belong in a column labeled approved. Second, and this is the one that actually bites: a statewide average is not a promise about your plan. Rates are filed by company and by region. In Western New York, where I sit, the approved 2027 changes for the insurers that sell here run from 0 to 12.2 percent on individual plans against that 6.0 percent statewide average. If your letter says a bigger number than the headline, nobody made a mistake. Your insurer came in above the average. I walk through that gap in detail on why your health insurance went up and in the Western New York 2027 rate breakdown.

Why the number on your letter can move more than the rate

Here is where people get blindsided, and it has nothing to do with the approved percentage. The premium is what the plan costs. What you pay is the premium minus whatever help you qualify for. Those are two different numbers, and since the enhanced credits expired at the end of 2025 the second one has been moving faster than the first. The old rule came back for 2026 and it is still in force for 2027: above 400 percent of the federal poverty level, marketplace help stops cold. Not shrinks. Stops. So a household that crosses that line sees a modest approved rate increase turn into a renewal that is hundreds or thousands of dollars a month higher. The math doesn't math, and nobody is going to call and warn you.

If you want your own number instead of an average, run it: the 2026 subsidy calculator shows what help you qualify for at a given income, and the free 2026 subsidy cliff calculator tells you in about a minute which side of the line you are on.

I will give you the straight version of what the marketplace is. It is one tool, and for some people it is the right one. It is also the only place that prices coverage without asking about your health, which matters a great deal to some readers and not at all to others. The trade-offs are real: networks on exchange plans tend to be narrower than what people expect, in community rated states like New York everyone pays the same rate regardless of health so the healthy subsidize the sick, your subsidy is built on an income you have to estimate a year in advance, and if you guess low you pay the difference back at tax time. If you are clearly subsidy eligible and your income is modest, those credits may genuinely be your best deal, and I will tell you so after I look at the numbers. What I will not do is let you assume it is the only door.

If your coverage comes through work

Same wave, different wording. The 2027 employer forecasts published in August and September 2026 run from 8.2 percent to 11.1 percent. Mercer put it at 8.2 percent and called it the largest increase since 2003, while noting that employers estimate 11 percent if they changed nothing to hold cost down. Aon projected 9.5 percent and put average cost above $19,000 per employee. WTW came in at 11.1 percent before plan design changes. Most of that spread is one methodology choice: whether the figure is measured before or after the employer shifts cost onto workers.

Which tells you how it reaches you. An 8 percent plan trend does not show up as an 8 percent payroll deduction. It shows up as a bigger deduction, or a bigger deductible, or a narrower network, or a spouse surcharge, in whatever mix your employer picks at renewal. If your share of a work plan has gotten expensive enough that you are wondering about alternatives, that is a real conversation and the answer depends on whether your plan passes the affordability test. There is a free affordability calculator for that.

What you can actually do before November 1

This is the part the rate stories skip, so here it is in order of what moves the needle.

1. Put the dates in your calendar now. Open enrollment runs November 1, 2026 through January 15, 2027 in most states, and December 15, 2026 is the last day in most states to pick something that starts January 1. New York, New Jersey, and California run through January 31, 2027. The full set of dates and deadlines is on the 2027 open enrollment page.

2. Do not auto renew. This is the cheapest mistake to avoid and the most common one made. Plans get repriced every year and they do not move together. The plan that was the best value for 2026 is frequently not the best value for 2027, sometimes inside the same company's own lineup. Auto renewal is a convenience feature, not a recommendation.

3. Know your subsidy line before you choose anything. Not after. Your modified adjusted gross income for 2027 is what the credit is built on, and if you are anywhere near 400 percent of the federal poverty level you need a real estimate rather than a shrug. Pre-tax retirement contributions and ordinary self-employed deductions lower that countable number, which is a conversation for you and your tax professional, not for me. But know the lever exists, because plenty of people fall off that cliff who did not have to.

4. If you are reasonably healthy and self employed, price the other door. For a lot of my clients the better answer is not a different exchange plan, it is not an exchange plan. In New York, healthy individuals, families, and small businesses can merge into a pre-established ERISA group plan. ERISA is federal law from 1974 and it overrides New York's community rating, so you get group rates, a true PPO on nationwide networks, and a policy that you own rather than your employer. It is a simple compliance step I walk you through. In states with private underwriting, the door is a customized individual plan priced on you instead of on the whole community, which for a healthy household can come in well under an unsubsidized exchange plan. And sometimes the honest answer is that you do not need a group plan at all: I build the plan around the situation, and often that means cost-effective customized individual coverage instead of a one-size-fits-all group policy.

None of those three doors is right for everybody, and anyone who tells you otherwise should worry you. A recent serious diagnosis, for instance, usually points back toward guaranteed-issue marketplace coverage for now, and I will say that out loud even though it is not the answer that pays me. You deserve to see the options side by side before you sign anything.

Common questions about 2027 health insurance premiums